We hope you are doing well. Thank you in advance for taking the time to read our updates on the market and happenings around the office. Season is going to be here before we know it, and we are excited to welcome our snowbirds back to the sunshine state. If you do not find yourself in SWFL anytime soon, please remember that we can always schedule a Zoom or conference call at your convenience.
September historically is the worst month for the stock market. Dating back to 1928 since the Great Depression, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. This September has followed the same trajectory with the market falling 4.8%. To be fair, there were several key developments that made for a bumpy ride. From the looming debt ceiling, the financial turmoil of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, and the global energy crunch, the market had plenty to be concerned about. To learn more, I encourage you to read our Economic Commentary which takes a deep dive into each of these themes. We expect the debt ceiling to be resolved by mid-October, but anticipate some volatility in the market until then. Despite these immediate challenges, we remain optimistic in the medium-term and recommend remaining invested as a long-term investor.
Lastly, I would be remiss to not address our reasoning for canceling the Welcome Back Receptions this year. With the current rise in COVID cases due to the Delta Variant, and social distancing a challenge during events in which guests are mingling, we made the difficult decision to cancel once again. We are hopeful that we will be able to host receptions in our offices next season. That said, we are confident that we can provide safe social distancing during our seminars and client luncheons. Please see page 7 or visit our website to see a schedule of our upcoming events. In lieu of our receptions, we are again offering our clients the option to elect a gift basket or, if wine and popcorn aren’t appealing, Sandi and I will donate the equivalent value to a local charity. Please be on the lookout for more information in your mail soon.
As always, please contact our office if you have any questions or if we may be of help in any way. It is our privilege to be of service to you and your family, and we appreciate the trust you have placed in us.
MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
Considering the recent pullback in the stock market, this September certainly lived up to its historical reputation as the worst-returning month on average. Indeed, given the litany of shocks and headwinds involved, an unabated rally would have raised more than a few eyebrows. Reading the headlines, it seemed as if each passing week brought forth a new crisis. There are, in fact, significant challenges confronting capital markets, particularly in certain sectors and regions. However, equally significant are the favorable fundamentals, continued economic recovery and strong growth forecasts—even after their downward revision from earlier in the year. Like two opposing weather fronts, the clash between these forces can easily produce stormy weather for the markets in the near-term. We’ll explore three significant developments of the past month—the impending Evergrande collapse, the global power crunch and the U.S. debt ceiling standoff—and their future capital market implications. Additionally, we’ll explain why we believe the best course of action for investors in volatile times is to stay the course, looking through market squalls to the clearer skies we believe are ahead…
To continue reading, please download the full Moran Monthly Digest here.
Moran Monthly Digest: Oct. 2021
We hope you are doing well. Thank you in advance for taking the time to read our updates on the market and happenings around the office. Season is going to be here before we know it, and we are excited to welcome our snowbirds back to the sunshine state. If you do not find yourself in SWFL anytime soon, please remember that we can always schedule a Zoom or conference call at your convenience.
September historically is the worst month for the stock market. Dating back to 1928 since the Great Depression, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a loss of 0.99%. This September has followed the same trajectory with the market falling 4.8%. To be fair, there were several key developments that made for a bumpy ride. From the looming debt ceiling, the financial turmoil of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande, and the global energy crunch, the market had plenty to be concerned about. To learn more, I encourage you to read our Economic Commentary which takes a deep dive into each of these themes. We expect the debt ceiling to be resolved by mid-October, but anticipate some volatility in the market until then. Despite these immediate challenges, we remain optimistic in the medium-term and recommend remaining invested as a long-term investor.
Lastly, I would be remiss to not address our reasoning for canceling the Welcome Back Receptions this year. With the current rise in COVID cases due to the Delta Variant, and social distancing a challenge during events in which guests are mingling, we made the difficult decision to cancel once again. We are hopeful that we will be able to host receptions in our offices next season. That said, we are confident that we can provide safe social distancing during our seminars and client luncheons. Please see page 7 or visit our website to see a schedule of our upcoming events. In lieu of our receptions, we are again offering our clients the option to elect a gift basket or, if wine and popcorn aren’t appealing, Sandi and I will donate the equivalent value to a local charity. Please be on the lookout for more information in your mail soon.
As always, please contact our office if you have any questions or if we may be of help in any way. It is our privilege to be of service to you and your family, and we appreciate the trust you have placed in us.
MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY
Considering the recent pullback in the stock market, this September certainly lived up to its historical reputation as the worst-returning month on average. Indeed, given the litany of shocks and headwinds involved, an unabated rally would have raised more than a few eyebrows. Reading the headlines, it seemed as if each passing week brought forth a new crisis. There are, in fact, significant challenges confronting capital markets, particularly in certain sectors and regions. However, equally significant are the favorable fundamentals, continued economic recovery and strong growth forecasts—even after their downward revision from earlier in the year. Like two opposing weather fronts, the clash between these forces can easily produce stormy weather for the markets in the near-term. We’ll explore three significant developments of the past month—the impending Evergrande collapse, the global power crunch and the U.S. debt ceiling standoff—and their future capital market implications. Additionally, we’ll explain why we believe the best course of action for investors in volatile times is to stay the course, looking through market squalls to the clearer skies we believe are ahead…
To continue reading, please download the full Moran Monthly Digest here.
This commentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The views expressed are those of the author(s) as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This material may have been prepared using data and analysis from a variety of sources, including but not limited to: Bloomberg, FactSet, Morningstar, S&P Global, Moody’s, Refinitiv, Capital IQ, CRSP, FRED, IMF, World Bank, OECD, and other third-party research providers. Additionally, portions of this content may have been generated or reviewed with the assistance of artificial intelligence tools, including OpenAI’s large language models or similar technologies. While we believe these sources to be reliable, we do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness.
Moran Wealth Management is a registered investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. For more information about our services, fees, and potential conflicts of interest, please refer to our Form ADV Part 2A, available upon request.