We’re excited to debut Quarter over Quarter, a new podcast from Moran Wealth Management® that brings you closer to the voices behind the research, strategy, and market outlook that drive our firm.
Hosted by President Don Drury, Chairman/CEO/CIO Tom Moran, and Managing Director/Head of Quantitative Strategies Charlie Chesbrough, this series delivers timely insights, forward-looking perspectives, and in-depth analysis of today’s financial markets and economic landscape.
Each episode offers insights into the strategic thinking and data-driven considerations that inform our investment approach. The inaugural episode explores key themes from the second quarter of 2025, including market performance, economic signals, and the factors we continue to monitor to inform our outlook and strategy.
The second quarter of 2025 brought a mix of expected outcomes and surprising reversals. While market valuations started the year at elevated levels, earnings growth in key sectors helped compress price-to-earnings ratios. Large-cap technology stocks, which experienced volatility early in the year—rallied strongly, once again dominating index performance.
The firm’s leadership observed that the anticipated rotation into value stocks was short-lived. While diversification across sectors remains important, the “Magnificent Seven” still exerted a heavy influence on index behavior. Encouragingly, broader participation across sectors has started to emerge.
Cryptocurrency and Caution: A Divisive Asset Class
While digital assets continue to capture headlines, the Moran Wealth Management® team approaches cryptocurrency with measured skepticism. The discussion highlighted the sharp divide between speculative enthusiasm and regulatory uncertainty, especially given the sheer volume of coins in circulation and the frequency of fraudulent activity in the space. Although blockchain technology and select assets like Ethereum offer intriguing utility, the long-term viability of many cryptocurrencies remains questionable.
Navigating Tariffs, Trade, and Market Sentiment
Trade policy developments and ongoing tariff discussions added a layer of uncertainty throughout Q2. With some countries accelerating imports ahead of proposed tariffs and others delaying negotiations, market participants were left interpreting inconsistent signals.
While the full impact of tariff policies remains to be seen, the team at Moran Wealth Management® believes the economic effects may ultimately be less severe than initially anticipated. Much depends on the outcome of current negotiations, particularly with major global players such as Japan, India, China, and the European Union.
Interest Rates, Inflation, and the Fed’s Delicate Balancing Act
Federal Reserve policy continues to play a pivotal role in market direction. With inflation data showing mixed signals and economic growth appearing to slow, questions around the timing and number of future rate cuts remain central to the outlook.
The team expects at least one rate cut before year-end, contingent on upcoming inflation and labor market data. However, they caution against the assumption that rate reductions alone will solve structural issues such as long-term borrowing costs or high national debt levels. The focus remains on interpreting economic signals in real time, rather than relying on consensus forecasts.
Portfolio Implications: Positioning for What’s Next
In response to evolving market conditions, Moran Wealth Management® is gradually increasing its exposure to international equities and exploring opportunities in mid- and small-cap stocks. These asset classes, which have lagged behind their large-cap counterparts, may present attractive valuations for patient, long-term investors.
The firm sees potential in these areas as tariff negotiations conclude, and global trade stabilizes. While the near-term outlook may remain volatile, the medium- to long-term positioning reflects confidence in recovery and rebalancing across equity markets.
AI, Automation, and Economic Productivity
Another central theme explored in the first episode is the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence and its potential to transform business operations. With more companies incorporating AI into core processes, productivity gains could begin to appear in margins and labor force dynamics sooner than anticipated.
While technological adoption may lead to short-term disruption in employment, Moran Wealth Management® views these developments as part of a broader productivity story. Much like previous innovation cycles from the steam engine to the internet, AI has the potential to reshape industries and influence future growth trends.
As companies accelerate the integration of AI and automation, the ripple effects are beginning to show in labor markets. While the unemployment rate remains relatively low, it has inched upward in recent months, a signal that operational efficiencies may be reducing demand for specific roles. This shift doesn’t yet indicate widespread job loss, but it does reflect an early phase of workforce transformation. As AI continues to reshape how businesses operate, Moran Wealth Management® is closely monitoring how these changes may impact consumer spending, corporate margins, and ultimately, long-term investment opportunities.
Risk, Timing, and Retirement Strategy
For clients nearing or in retirement, the firm emphasizes the importance of managing sequence-of-returns risk. Having sufficient liquidity during market drawdowns can help prevent the need to sell growth assets at unfavorable prices. Moran Wealth Management® discusses the importance of considering a structured approach that includes maintaining a “rainy day” reserve and prioritizing income stability in the first five years of retirement.
The firm emphasizes the value of long-term planning and cautions against making reactive allocation changes during periods of volatility.
Looking Ahead
The remainder of 2025 will likely be shaped by two key variables: the resolution of global trade negotiations and the continued integration of AI across industries. Both carry the potential to influence economic growth, labor markets, and investor sentiment.
As the team continues to evaluate these developments, Quarter over Quarter will serve as an ongoing platform for thoughtful dialogue and education by providing clients and listeners with context, clarity, and guidance for the road ahead.
This summary offers just a glimpse into the insights shared in the first episode, but it only scratches the surface. For a deeper dive into this and other timely topics, we invite you to watch or listen to the full episode and explore our educational video library for additional perspectives and in-depth conversations.
The content on this page and/or video is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Specifically, the content is intended to provide education and tools for individuals looking to handle their retirement planning on their own. Should you need personalized investment advice, you should consult with a registered investment adviser. Any communications on this page with other individuals that are not associated with Moran Wealth Management, LLC are done voluntarily by users and are unsupervised and unaffiliated with Moran Wealth Management, LLC and Moran Wealth Management, LLC has no responsibility or liability over any discussions or advice that may be given. Moran Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser and can provide investment advice. If you are interested in Moran Wealth Management, LLC’s advisory services, you can contact us at 239-920-4440 or info@moranwm.com.
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