HISTORY COUNSELS PATIENCE.
Markets have absorbed geopolitical shocks before — and typically delivered strong returns in the year that followed, provided the economy was not already fragile.
THE FED’S OPTIONS HAVE NARROWED BUT HAVE NOT CLOSED.
Two rate cuts were priced in before the conflict. Futures now place a one-in-three chance of a hike instead. Critically, longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored — preserving the Fed’s ability to hold rather than act.
THE TIDE THAT LIFTED PASSIVE INVESTING IS GOING OUT.
Passive dominance was built on excess liquidity and narrow market leadership — both of which are fading. Rising rates and a stronger dollar add further tailwinds for broader, more diversified strategies.
A MARKET UNDER PRESSURE
The U.S.-Israel conflict in Iran, which began in late February, has triggered one of the most significant oil supply disruptions in decades. Brent crude has surged above $119 per barrel and gasoline is approaching $4 per gallon.
What is striking is the absence of the usual shock absorbers. Bonds have offered no shelter: the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.39%, and the 30- year approaches 5%. Gold has fallen nearly 10% from its record above $5,300 as traders liquidate to cover losses. Cash has been the only refuge.
As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 sits at 6,369 — down nearly 9% from its January high and at its lowest level in seven months. The Dow has entered correction territory. Both indexes have now fallen for five consecutive weeks, their longest losing streak in nearly four years.
Unsettling as this is, the S&P 500 remains well above where it stood a year ago. The question is not whether conditions are difficult — they are — but whether portfolios are structured to weather them.
MARKETS AND GEOPOLITICAL SHOCK: WHAT HISTORY SUGGESTS
Selling during a geopolitical crisis is more often a reflex than a strategy. Looking back at major conflicts over the past six decades — from the Cuban Missile Crisis to the Gulf War to the 2003 Iraq War — the S&P 500 has consistently delivered positive returns in the twelve months following peak uncertainty. The 1991 Gulf War and the 2003 invasion of Iraq preceded index gains of 22.6% and 35.0% respectively.
The exceptions are instructive. In 2001, September 11th struck during an already-unraveling dot-com bust, compounding a downturn already underway. In 1973 and 2022, markets were also lower a year later — each time, inflation was already above 7% and policy tightening was underway. Geopolitical shocks, as a rule, do not end business cycles. Aggressive monetary tightening does. Longer-term inflation expectations remain relatively contained today, signaling that markets do not view this as a 1970s replay.
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