In recent weeks, renewed discussions around tariffs have dominated economic headlines. These announcements—whether tied to geopolitical tensions, domestic policy shifts, or trade imbalances—tend to evoke swift reactions from investors and market participants alike. We’ve fielded a number of client calls expressing concern about what these new measures might mean for their portfolios, the economy, and the broader market outlook.
Our message to them was simple: stay informed, not alarmed.
The instinct to react emotionally to such news is understandable. Tariffs can sound ominous, and history is replete with examples of trade wars and retaliatory measures that rattled global markets. Yet in our experience—and in reviewing decades of data—our perspective is that the initial reaction to tariff news is often more dramatic than the actual economic impact.
This isn’t to say tariffs are without consequence. Depending on their scope and implementation, they can influence input costs, consumer prices, supply chains, and sector performance. But context matters. In many cases, the headlines overstate the immediate risks while underestimating the capacity of markets and businesses to adapt.
History as a Guide, not a Forecast
As a firm that studies economic history as much as current events, this pattern is not surprising to us. Tariffs are often introduced with strong rhetoric and political posturing yet frequently become watered down during the implementation phase or reversed altogether when global pressures shift. In the moment, it may feel like the start of a new economic era. In retrospect, it often resembles more of a temporary detour.
Take, for example, the steel and aluminum tariffs from a few years ago. While they certainly influenced specific industries, the broader economy adjusted—often faster than many predicted. Businesses found alternate supply routes. Consumers absorbed modest price changes. And investors, after an initial period of volatility, recalibrated expectations accordingly.
Our job, as advisors and stewards of wealth, is to distinguish the signal from the noise.
Prepared, Not Panicked
That’s why we approach these headlines not with alarm, but with readiness. Yes, we reviewed our portfolios in light of the proposed tariffs. Yes, we revisited allocations in sectors more directly affected by global trade, such as manufacturing, technology, and consumer goods. And yes, we had thoughtful conversations with clients about potential downstream impacts.
But we also emphasized patience.
The worst investment decisions are often made in the heat of uncertainty. Selling out of fear, buying into hype, or chasing short-term headlines can be far more damaging than the event that sparked the reaction. Our role, in moments like this, is to offer clarity—not certainty—and to help clients remain grounded in a plan that was built to endure both noise and change.
What’s Next?
At the time of writing, many of the proposed tariff measures are still being debated. Their final form—if implemented at all—will depend on a host of factors: economic data, political negotiations, global responses, and evolving supply dynamics. The truth is no one knows precisely how it will unfold.
What we do know is that markets are resilient, and investors who maintain a disciplined approach tend to fare better than those who lurch from one headline to the next.
We will continue to monitor developments closely, make adjustments where warranted, and communicate with our clients every step of the way. But we will not be swayed by fear or speculation. We will continue to rely on data, analysis, and experience to guide our decisions.
Because in the end, wisdom isn’t about predicting every twist and turn. It’s about knowing how to navigate the road with intention, regardless of what lies ahead.