Something changed this year. From 2023 through 2025, a lot of the market’s gains came from investors simply paying more for the same dollar of earnings — what’s known as PE expansion. On the latest episode of Quarter Over Quarter, Tom Moran, Don Drury, and Charlie Chesebrough dig into why 2026 looks fundamentally different, and why that difference is both the best argument for the rally and the thing that could unwind it.
The Earnings Number That’s Hard to Believe
On the episode, Tom shares his own read on this earnings season, citing a beat rate he’s tracked at north of 75% — with, in his words, a meaningful share of companies delivering a “triple beat” across revenue, earnings, and forward guidance. Charlie adds that, in his view, year-over-year earnings growth heading into the back half of 2026 is tracking toward levels he associates with a recession recovery. The two of them disagree, gently, on how sustainable that pace actually is.
The Market Finally Starts to Broaden — But Not Evenly
For years, a handful of mega-cap tech names carried the index. Charlie points to a signal he’d been watching closely — by his own account, the equal-weighted S&P outperforming the market-cap-weighted S&P by several hundred basis points — which he reads as a classic sign that the rally is starting to spread beyond the largest names. Tom agrees with that read, but flags a seasonal wrinkle that’s kept him from fully relaxing about it just yet.
Energy, Data Centers, and the Bottleneck Nobody’s Talking About
Chips get all the attention in the AI conversation. Don raises a different constraint entirely — one tied to the physical power needed to run all those data centers — and asks the team who actually benefits if that shortage proves out. Charlie’s answer traces a “food chain” of industries quietly riding the AI buildout that have nothing to do with software.
The Debt Question Neither Party Wants to Answer
The conversation takes a sharper turn when Charlie brings up the national debt crossing a threshold he calls impossible to ignore, layering it against persistent deficit spending and a bond market that’s starting to act uneasy. Tom’s read on what’s actually driving higher long-term rates — and whether it’s inflation or something else entirely — sets up a debate about debt service costs that neither host is fully comfortable with.
Growth vs. Value: A Multi-Year Shift, or a Head Fake?
Both hosts see value stocks looking more attractive than they have in years, and Tom points to a specific portfolio manager on the Moran team whose read on valuations backs that up. But how they each frame the opportunity — and how far they think this rotation actually goes — is where the conversation gets interesting.
The Margin Number the Whole Market Should Be Watching
Charlie lays out a specific operating-margin range he says would confirm AI’s benefits are spreading company-wide rather than staying concentrated in a handful of names — what he only half-jokingly calls the “promised land.” Tom adds a real-time data point that’s been bothering him: companies beating estimates on revenue, earnings, and outlook haven’t been getting rewarded in the market the way they normally would. Whether that’s noise or a warning sign is where the two of them land in slightly different places.
Is This 1996, or Is This 1999?
Charlie, who lived through the dot-com run-up, poses the uncomfortable question directly: are we early in a long climb, or are we closer to the top than anyone wants to admit? Tom counters with a data point from that exact period showing how a broadly diversified portfolio behaved very differently than the concentrated index once the correction actually arrived.
A Rapid-Fire Round on What “Broadening” Really Means
Don puts Tom and Charlie through a quick series of bullish/bearish/neutral calls — continued hyperscaler capex, utility prices rising, AI revenue growing while free cash flow shrinks — and the two hosts don’t always land in the same place. On at least one of these, Don pushes back on both of them at once.
Railroads, PCs, and the Case for AI as an Industrial Revolution
Charlie draws a sweeping historical comparison — rails, the PC, the internet — and makes the case for where AI fits in that lineage. He goes a step further, predicting a familiar corporate pattern once today’s tech giants hit a certain size. Tom’s take on the timeline is a little more cautious.
Inflation or Deflation? Elon Musk Weighs In
A recent comment from Elon Musk reframes the debate entirely: what if the real risk isn’t rising prices, but falling ones? Tom and Charlie each stake out a different position — with an unexpectedly literal illustration involving the price of a new TV versus what it costs to actually get it mounted on the wall.
Positioning for the Final Quarter of the Year
With three months left in 2026, the conversation turns to where the team is looking — and where they think portfolios have quietly drifted out of balance without investors fully realizing it. September’s reputation gets named directly, and so does the pushback on it.
On the latest episode of Quarter Over Quarter, Tom Moran, Don Drury, and Charlie Chesebrough break down 2026’s earnings surprise, the debt overhang behind higher rates, and where they see opportunity heading into year-end.
Watch or listen to the full conversation on the Moran Wealth Management® YouTube channel, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify.